The strict, data-driven definition of “altcoin season” has not been met as of mid-August 2025.
Bitcoin dominance slipped below 60%, a classic early sign of rotation—but not definitive proof of full altseason.
Ether is leading with ETF-fueled momentum while macro conditions tilt risk-on, improving odds of broader alt performance.
Watch for breadth: at least 75% of top-50 altcoins outperforming BTC over 90 days is the key trigger.
What actually counts as “altcoin season”?
“Altcoin season” isn’t just vibes on crypto Twitter—it has a widely referenced benchmark. The Altcoin Season Index (ASI) defines altseason as the point when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins (excluding stablecoins and wrapped/asset-backed tokens) have outperformed Bitcoin over the prior 90 days. That’s the hard threshold many analysts use to call a cycle shift from BTC leadership into alts. You can check the current reading and methodology directly on the Altcoin Season Index page from Blockchaincenter, which also tracks monthly and yearly versions of the metric (see: Altcoin Season Index explanation and thresholds).
Why this matters: it’s a breadth indicator. A few hot narratives don’t make an altseason. You want to see sustained, broad-based outperformance across the majors and large mid-caps versus BTC.
Where the indicators stand today (mid‑August 2025)
Altcoin Season Index: The index currently signals “It is not Altcoin Season!” and shows a reading below the 75 threshold required for a formal trigger.
Bitcoin dominance: Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market cap fell below 60%—a level not seen since early 2025—while total crypto market cap pushed past $4T. Historically, declining BTC dominance often precedes or accompanies rotation into alts. Ether led the move during this latest dip in dominance.
Ether leadership and ETF flows: ETH has been rallying on “heavy inflows into ETFs” and supportive regulatory tone, with implied volatility and positioning reflecting renewed optimism for a retest of prior highs.
Macro backdrop: Risk assets remain supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, a softer U.S. dollar (DXY), and strong equity indices—conditions that typically help higher-beta parts of crypto if momentum broadens.
Snapshot verdict: Progress, yes. Full altseason by the strict definition, not yet.
Signals that say “we’re close” vs. “not yet”
Supportive signals
Dominance drifting lower: The move below 60% suggests BTC’s grip is loosening—often a prerequisite for alt outperformance.
ETH leading: Ether typically leads early in rotation phases, especially when flows are institutional (e.g., ETFs) and macro sentiment is improving.
Risk-on tailwinds: Higher equities and a softer dollar provide a favorable backdrop for higher-beta assets—including alts.
Cautionary/“not yet” signals
Breadth is insufficient: The Altcoin Season Index has not crossed the 75% threshold, meaning broad-based outperformance vs. BTC isn’t established.
Choppy alt/BTC pairs: Early cycles often see large caps (ETH, top L1s) move first while mid-cap and long-tail alts lag or remain volatile until breadth improves.
Leadership concentration: If ETH and a handful of majors are doing most of the heavy lifting, that’s rotation—not a mature altseason.
The practical dashboard: What to watch next
Altcoin Season Index crosses 75+: This is the clearest breadth trigger. A sustained break above 75 on the 90-day lookback is the textbook signal.
Bitcoin dominance trends toward mid‑50s (or lower): Successive lower highs in dominance often coincide with deeper alt rotation.
ETH/BTC uptrend: Continued ETH leadership versus BTC tends to support broader risk appetite in alt L1/L2 ecosystems.
ETF flow prints: Persistent net inflows into ETH (and any new alt-focused products) reinforce institutional participation.
Breadth beyond majors: Track how many of the top 50 are outperforming BTC over 30–90 days, not just the top 10.
Funding/derivatives sanity checks: If perp funding is persistently overheated while breadth is weak, moves can be fragile.
On-chain activity and fees: Rising active addresses, transactions, and developer activity in alt ecosystems can confirm real usage, not just speculation.
Strategy considerations for general readers (education, not advice)
Know your definition: Decide whether you’re trading the “formal” altseason (ASI > 75) or the “rotation” phase (declining BTC dominance + ETH leadership). Your plan will differ.
Avoid chasing thin liquidity: The earliest, strongest moves often occur in majors and large mid-caps. Micro-caps can lag—and snap back hard.
Phase your entries: If you’re dollar-cost averaging, consider time-based tranches and avoid going all-in on a single signal. For momentum styles, wait for confirmation (breadth + trend).
Diversify by narrative quality: Balance between leaders (ETH, top L1/L2s) and select sectors with credible catalysts (infrastructure, scaling, data, real-world assets). Treat memecoins as high-risk.
Pre-plan risk: Define invalidation levels, position sizing, and where you’ll take profits. Altseason euphoria can fade quickly.
Not financial advice. Do your own research and consider talking to a licensed advisor if you’re allocating meaningful capital.
Bottom line: Are we there yet?
Not quite—by the strict breadth definition, it’s still “not altcoin season.” That said, the pieces are moving into place. Bitcoin dominance has dipped below 60%, ETH is leading on ETF-fueled momentum, and the macro backdrop is cooperative. If breadth improves—specifically, if a clear majority of top-50 alts beat BTC over a sustained 90-day window—we’ll have a stronger case to say “yes.”
Until then, think of the current phase as pre-altseason rotation. Keep your dashboard tight: watch the Altcoin Season Index, BTC dominance trend, ETH/BTC, and flow data. If those align, the “are we there yet?” might finally turn into “we’re rolling.”
